Research

CV – February 2024

Work in Progress:

Quantifying Fiscal Inflation Quantifying_Fiscal_Contribution_to_US_Inflation, SEA2023_presentation

Credit and the Extensive Margin (Slides)

Forthcoming:

The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market (with Xin Jin and Mine Yucel), The Economic JournalOnline appendix

Published Papers:

In No Uncertain Terms: The Effect of Uncertainty on Credit Frictions and Monetary Policy” (with Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Zheng Zeng), July 2021, Economic Modelling, 105493

Identifying Credit Demand, Financial Intermediation, and Supply of Funds Shocks: A Structural VAR Approach” (with Ren Zhang and Zheng Zeng), April 2021, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 101375.

Oil Supply Shocks and the U.S. Economy: An Estimated DSGE Model,” (with Stephen P.A. Brown), Energy Policy, 116 (May), 2018, 357-372.

Incorporating the Beige Book into a Quantitative Index of Economic Activity” (with Mike Fulmer and Ren Zhang),  Journal of Forecasting, 36 (5), 2017, 497–514.

Fuel Subsidies, the Oil Market and the World Economy,” (with Michael Plante and Mine Yucel), The Energy Journal, 36 (Special Issue), 2015, 99-127..

A Bayesian Examination of Weak Identification in Stock Price Decompositions,” (with Jun Ma and Mark Wohar), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19 (4), 2015, 728-752.

Credit Demand, Credit Supply, and Economic Activity,” (with Zheng Zeng), B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Contributions, 13 (1), 2013, 643-680.

  “The Contribution of Economic Fundamentals to Movements in Exchange Rates” (with Jun Ma and Mark Wohar), Journal of International Economics, 30 (1), 2013, 1-16.

Sectoral Effects of Aggregate Shocks,” Advances in Econometrics, 30, 2012, 299-357.

Market Fundamentals vs Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices: A Bayesian Analysis (with Mark Wohar), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24 (1), 2009, 35-75.

The Relative Price Effects of Monetary Shocks,” (with Mark A. Wynne), Journal of Macroeconomics, 29 (1), 2007, 19-36.

What Drives Stock Prices?  Identifying the Determinants of Stock Price Movements” (with Mark Wohar), Southern Economic Journal, 74 (1), July 2006, 55-78.

Low Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State Space Decomposition,”(with Mark Wohar), Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(4), November 2002, 649-667.

Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?”  (with Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yücel), Energy Journal, 23(3) 2002, 27-52.

How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively,” (with D’Ann Petersen), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34 (1), February 2002, 114-136.

Credit and Economics Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks, ”Review of Economics and Statistics,  May 2000, 344-349.

An Equilibrium Analysis of Relative Price Changes and Aggregate Inflation,” (with M. Wynne), Journal of Monetary Economics, 45(2), April 2000, 269-292.

Nonlinear Dynamics and Covered Interest Rate Parity,” (with M. Wohar), Empirical Economics, 23 (4), 1998, 535-559.

Threshold Cointegration,” (with T. Fomby), International Economic Review, 38(3), August 1997, 627-646.

Are Deep Recessions Followed by Strong Recoveries?  Results for the G-7 Countries,” (with M. Wynne), Applied Economics, 28(7), July 1996, 889-897.

Recessions and Recoveries in Real Business Cycle Models,” (with M. Wynne), Economic Inquiry, 33 (4), October 1995, 640-663.

Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations:  Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series,”  (with T. Fomby), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1994, 181-200.

The Algebra of Price Stability,” (with K. Emery), Journal of Macroeconomics, 16(1), Winter 1994, 77-97.

Detecting Level Shifts in Time Series,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, January 1993, 81-92.

Poverty and Change in the Macroeconomy: A Dynamic Macroeconometric Model” (with D. Slottje), Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993, 117-122.

Are Deep Recessions Followed by Strong Recoveries?” (with M. Wynne), Economics Letters, 39(2), June 1992, 183-189.

A Theory of Fed Watching in a Macroeconomic Policy Game” (with J. Haslag), International Economic Review, 33(3), August 1992, 619-628.

Shifting Trends, Segmented Trends, and Infrequent Permanent Shocks” (with T. Fomby), Journal of Monetary Economics, 28(1), August 1991, 61-86.

Infrequent Permanent Shocks and the Finite-Sample Performance of Unit Root Tests,” (with T. Fomby), Economic Letters, 36, 1991, 269-273.

Partisanship Theory, Macroeconomic Outcomes, and Endogenous Elections,” Southern Economic Journal 57(4), April 1991, 920-935.

Variability and Forecastability of Central Bank Preferences in a Monetary Policy Game,” (with J. Haslag), Journal of Macroeconomics, 13, Summer 1991, 535-541.

The Rational Timing of Parliamentary Elections,” Public Choice, 65, 1990, 201-216.

The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence,” (with Robert J. Gordon), Journal of Political Economy, 97 (1), February 1989, 38-92.